On the boys side the top ten ranked teams in our most recent MileSplit Maine team rankings will square off on Saturday. The anticipated showdown between top ranked Hampden Academy and second ranked Portland should be a good one as it appears not much separates these two teams on paper. With the New England Championship happening on the Troy Howard Middle School course in November there are several out of state teams competing. Two ranked New Hampshire teams hoping to cross the border and pull the upset with sixth ranked Bedford and eighth ranked Bishop Guertin, while E.O. Smith is the eighth ranked team in Connecticut. Coming into the meet we usually have a better idea of where teams stand but with the cancelation of the Southern Maine Classic two weeks ago things are still up in the air, we should have a much better idea of how all the teams across the state stack up after Saturday.
A deeper dive into the top two teams in Maine. It's likely the team scores between these two will be separate by less than 15 points. They are pretty evenly matched in our opinion even though on times from this season would lead you to believe Portland is the heavy favorite but that is just because the courses that Hampden Academy has run on to date this season.
Hampden Academy vs. Portland
Blades has the edge here, he ran 15:49 a year ago at FOC, he has won both races this season including a 16:03, but hasn't raced in three weeks due to college visits. Shain won't be that far back based of his most recent effort at Cony (17:26) which translates to around a 16:00 effort He clocked 16:34 at FOC last year. Edge Portland
|Valentine has emerged this fall and crushed his last effort at Cony (17:29) which was 1:44 faster than last fall at the same time. I figure him to in the 16:00-16:05 range on Saturday. Prestes continues to improve, and enters with a best of 16:26 on the season, and will be looking to improve on his 16:58 from last year at FOC. Not much separates these two but could be an advantage for HA based on how well Valentine has been running. Toss Up|
|Collin is a big meet runner, so don't be surprised to see him pop one on Saturday. He comes in with a best of 17:48 from Cony last week. I would expect Collins to be in the 16:40 range based off of this. He clocked 17:03 a year ago at FOC. Coleman has been on a steady rise over the last year. He clocked 17:22 for a 5k best so far this season. I could see him in the 16:45-50 range -- edge Hampden Academy|
|Shain clocked 18:00 at Cony last week, and a year ago ran 17:10 at FOC. I predict him to be 16:50's on Saturday. Hargesheimer will benefit from the course at Belfast, he's got some great speed. On the year his best 5k is 17:34, but he hasn't raced in three weeks. I expect him to be in the low 17's Edge Hampden Academy|
|Simons is coming off a 18:39 at Cony his fastest of the season. He clocked 17:44 last year at FOC. Based off his most recent effort, I see him in the 17:20 range. Jacques has a best of 17:37 on the year, he ran 17:51 at Massabesic last week. Can see Jacques running 17:10-15 on a good day. Edge Portland|
|Scott will run in the freshman race which should help him out. He clocked a strong 18:40 at Cony last week so a 17:20-25 effort isn't out of the question on Saturday. Blades has a best of 17:50 on the season and ran 17:50 at FOC a year ago. He's likely in the 17:20-25 range as well. Toss up|
|Greene a sophomore ran 18:47 at Cony last week not far back of the 5-6 runners for the Broncos. Could see him in the 17:30 range on Saturday. Johnson got off to a slow start running 18:08 he progressed to 17:53 last week at Massabesic. A year ago he clocked 16:51 at FOC. I can see him in the 17:15-20 range on Saturday. Edge Portland|
Looking at the top ten team averages for the top five the two New Hampshire school lead the way with Bedford leading the way at 16:47. Brunswick is the top Maine school this fall with a 16:51 team average.
Top 5k Averages
Looking at the top ten pack times which can be helpful in a big meet the Red Storm of Scarborough have the best so far with a forty-one second pack time for their top five. Hampden Academy has under a minute pack time which could help them in defending their title.
Top Pack Times
|Team||Pack Split Time|
|Mt Desert Island||1:15|
Top Ten Team Predictions